Beyond the Numbers: Understanding PTW and Pwin in Competitive Bidding
March 26, 2026 - 12 pm Eastern
Details:
PTW (Probability of Winning the Tender) and Pwin (Probability of Win) are often referenced in capture planning and pricing discussions, but they’re rarely understood or applied consistently.
In this practical, real-world session, Jon will break down what PTW and Pwin actually represent, how they differ, and why understanding both is critical to making smarter bid, pricing, and go/no-go decisions. Drawing from decades of hands-on experience in federal government contracting, Jon will explore how these concepts influence competitive positioning, pricing strategy, risk tolerance, and ultimately, profitability.
Attendees will walk away with a clearer framework for evaluating opportunities, aligning pricing with win strategy, and avoiding common pitfalls that lead to underpriced or misaligned bids. This session is especially valuable for proposal professionals, capture managers, pricing teams, and business leaders involved in competitive pursuits.
You’ll learn how to:
Distinguish between PTW and Pwin — and when to use each
Apply these concepts to bid/no-bid and pricing decisions
Balance competitiveness with margin and execution risk
Improve win probability without sacrificing long-term profitability
Presenter:
Jon Barker leads the pricing division of Strategic Growth Partners (SGP) following the integration of his firm, PTW Solutions in 2024. He brings more than two decades of experience in the federal government contracting (GovCon) industry, with deep expertise across pricing, contracts, proposal strategy, and program execution.
Over the course of his career, Jon has submitted and negotiated thousands of proposals and managed contracts totalling more than $5.5 billion in obligations. He has overseen portfolios exceeding $150M annually and is known for helping organizations pursue the right opportunities with pricing strategies that maximize both win probability and long-term profitability.
Jon is a subject-matter expert across the full procurement lifecycle, from market research and pre-award strategy through contract execution and closeout, and excels at defending pricing approaches that meet government “fair and reasonable” standards.
He is an active member of NCMA, APMP, and SCIP, serves on the Board of the NC NCMA Chapter, and mentors small businesses navigating the GovCon marketplace.